This framework covers how to screen CPG innovation pipelines from 10-15 concepts to 3-4 winners using consumer evidence. For the full innovation research methodology, see Product Innovation Research Template for CPG. For the complete concept testing guide, see Concept Testing for CPG.
The Four-Stage Screening Process
Stage 1: Quick Screen (30-50 interviews per concept)
Objective: Rapid go/kill assessment on the full pipeline.
Method: AI-moderated interviews with 30-50 verified category purchasers per concept (monadic design).
Questions (compressed, 15-minute interview):
- “Tell me your initial reaction to this concept.”
- “Does this solve a real problem for you? What problem?”
- “What is the biggest concern or hesitation you have?”
- “How is this different from what is already available?”
- “If this were on the shelf, would you stop and pick it up?”
Timeline: 48-72 hours per batch of 3-5 concepts. Full pipeline in 1-2 weeks.
Cost: $600-$1,000 per concept. $6,000-$15,000 for a 10-15 concept pipeline.
Go/No-Go Criteria:
| Metric | Advance | Refine | Kill |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spontaneous appeal (% positive) | >60% | 40-60% | <40% |
| Problem-solution fit (% real problem) | >50% | 30-50% | <30% |
| Barrier severity (% dealbreaker) | <30% | 30-50% | >50% |
| Differentiation (% articulate difference) | >40% | 20-40% | <20% |
Expected outcome: 10-15 concepts triage to 5-7 that advance, 3-5 that go to refine, and 3-5 that are killed.
Stage 2: Deep Evaluation (100 interviews per surviving concept)
Objective: Full concept evaluation of the 5-7 survivors, using the complete concept testing discussion guide.
Method: 100 verified category purchasers per concept, 30-minute AI-moderated interviews.
Timeline: 48-72 hours per concept.
Cost: $2,000 per concept. $10,000-$14,000 for 5-7 concepts.
Assessment dimensions:
- Motivation hierarchy (laddering from attribute to value)
- Price-value perception
- Competitive displacement potential
- Barrier addressability
- Repurchase likelihood indicators
Expected outcome: 5-7 concepts triage to 3-4 with strong consumer evidence for advancement.
Stage 3: Refinement Testing (50-100 interviews per refined concept)
Objective: Test modified versions of concepts that showed potential but had addressable barriers.
Method: 50-100 interviews testing the refined concept versus the original.
Timeline: 48-72 hours.
Cost: $1,000-$2,000 per concept.
Key question: Did the refinement address the barrier without weakening the core appeal?
Stage 4: Portfolio Decision
Objective: Select the 3-4 concepts for full development investment.
Inputs: Consumer evidence from Stages 1-3, plus business feasibility data (margin, supply chain, distribution, cannibalization risk).
Concept Scoring Matrix
For each concept that reaches Stage 2, score on these dimensions:
| Dimension | Weight | Score (1-5) | Weighted Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer appeal strength | 25% | ||
| Problem-solution fit | 20% | ||
| Motivation depth (value connection) | 15% | ||
| Competitive differentiation | 15% | ||
| Barrier addressability | 10% | ||
| Price-value acceptance | 10% | ||
| Repurchase indicators | 5% | ||
| Total | 100% | /5.00 |
Score interpretation:
- 4.0+: Strong advance. High confidence in consumer demand.
- 3.0-3.9: Conditional advance. Strong in some areas but has gaps to address.
- 2.0-2.9: Requires significant refinement. Re-screen after modification.
- <2.0: Kill. Consumer evidence does not support advancement.
Portfolio-Level Prioritization
After individual scoring, assess the portfolio:
-
Coverage: Do the 3-4 winners address different consumer segments or occasions? A portfolio of concepts that all target the same segment creates cannibalization risk.
-
Risk balance: Does the portfolio include both incremental (low risk, moderate upside) and breakthrough (higher risk, high upside) concepts?
-
Cross-concept patterns: What themes emerged across concepts? If consumers consistently value a specific attribute across multiple concepts, that is a category-level insight that should inform all future innovation.
The Intelligence Hub surfaces these cross-concept patterns automatically when all screening data is stored in the same system.
Total Pipeline Screening Cost
| Stage | Per Concept | Concepts | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stage 1: Quick screen | $600-$1,000 | 10-15 | $6,000-$15,000 |
| Stage 2: Deep evaluation | $2,000 | 5-7 | $10,000-$14,000 |
| Stage 3: Refinement testing | $1,000-$2,000 | 2-3 | $2,000-$6,000 |
| Total | $18,000-$35,000 |
Compare to traditional agency screening of the same pipeline: $250,000-$750,000 over 6-12 months.
For the full CPG innovation research framework, see Product Innovation Research Template for CPG. For cost breakdowns by research type, see CPG Market Research Cost. To screen your innovation pipeline with verified purchasers, launch a study or book a demo.